Mega, Giga, and Terra Churches: And Their Implications
By Bill Easum
You will either love or hate this article. And you will think I am either a prophet or a clown. Either way, the article is worth a serious read.
Several years ago I made the observation that we were entering a time of fewer mega churches. I have publically backed off that observation recently. Anyone who sticks their neck out very far has to be willing to pull it back in quickly before it gets chopped off. But before you sharpen your axe read on.
The picture is shaping up quite different than I thought it would. The mega church trend if anything is gaining momentum as well as larger forms of church life are emerging. According to Church Growth Today research, new non-Catholic mega churches are emerging now every week in the fastest rate ever recorded in the U.S. Not only that, mega churches continue to grow larger. Once a church gets over five thousand in worship its growth seems to escalate.
I made the observation that the mega church movement is slowing down based on several things: one, studies seem to indicate that people prefer a church of around 250 people; I hadn’t considered the multi site option which I believe is the wildcard for the future that will affect every aspect of church growth; and from all I read it seemed to me that people under 35 would have a hard time supporting large mega churches. But I keep running into mega churches who are reaching primarily people under the age of 35 - churches like Mars Hill in Seattle and Bay Area Fellowship in Corpus Christi. I could list more but you get the picture.
But I’m not the only one to make the mistake of thinking the day of the mega church is over. Take my book for example - Go Big: How to Have Explosive Growth. The first publisher I pitched it to refused it because it was not in line with the prevailing thought of the time – namely that the emerging church is going to be small and so different from what we know today that it will be hard to recognize. If you look at the publications today, most of them are very anti mega church. Yet large, indigenous churches continue to show up all over the map. At this writing (2007), only ten states are void of a mega church.
Of course I could back off a bit and say that it’s just going to take a bit longer than I thought before the mega church phenomena wanes. But I’ve been thinking that now for several years. It may be true that the future does not bode well for the mega church, but for now and the next twenty years or so, it seems that the mega church is here to stay.
But that’s not all the picture.
Now we are seeing the emergence of what I coined the “giga-church” in a Washington Post interview. These are churches over 10,000 in worship. At the end of 2007 there were 36 giga-churches. By the end of 2007 that number is over 40 and climbing. Sometime in 2008 we will see the emergence of the first “terra-church”- over 50,000 in worship. The terra-church is nothing new many parts of the world, but it certainly is for Western Christianity.
At the same time the mega church is growing larger, medium range mega churches (2,000-4,000 in worship) seem to be stalling out. Many of their flock are now found in the much larger mega church. A case seems to be able to be made that most giga churches are growing on the backs of medium sized mega churches.
On the other hand, we are noticing the emergence of a whole new breed of thriving, mission minded, smaller congregations (under 600 in worship), most of which are under the radar. I wrote about some of them in my book Under the Radar.
So my guess is twenty-five years from now we will see many thriving small missional churches (300-600) and a scattering of very large giga, and terra churches (10,000-100.000) in each of the metro areas of the U.S. – and fewer mega churches like I predicted some five years ago.
What then are the implications? I will list what I consider to be the inevitable and then the wildcard implication.
Inevitable Implications
-Many of the mega churches will be downsized due to the squeeze of the very large mega church.
-Church plants need to consider the need for as much space as possible.
-Parking, entrances, and exits will become more important.
-Most of the smaller churches today will close over the next eighteen years even though over the past century they have remained resilient due to the handoff from one generation to another. Now, there is no generation interested in taking the handoff. Postmodernity has seen to that.
-Most of the medium sized churches will either grow into mega churches are enter a free fall decline.
-In eighteen years, unlike today, the number of clergy in established denominations will outnumber the number of churches.
-Unlike many people believe, the Emergent Church will occupy a small, but important nitch in the future.
-The emerging postmodern small church is in for a very bright but volatile future. Volatile because the people it will attract are innovation junkies and will become bored the moment the small church becomes more like an institution than a movement and prefers stability over innovation. Also volatile if it becomes so large that it loses its intimacy and close proximity of the pastor to the congregation.
-Churches over 10,000 in worship will become more numerous and more influential than all of the denominations rolled into one. This phenomenon is already taking shape. All one has to do is look at the many conferences put on by these congregations.
-Several terra churches will emerge and change the religious landscape.
Wildcard Implications
-Terra churches will affect the political landscape of the U.S. by being the launch pad for some of the more influential politicians of the time, or the backlash to Christianity will become so entrenched throughout the U.S. that churches will become the targets for both political and group abuse.
-Because of the size and influence of the giga and terra churches ways will be found to find ways to tax all churches which will put an increasing burden on the small to medium church and slow the present church planting movement.
-The polarization between the political left and the evangelical right will deepen to the point that government will clamp down on the right of assembly by limiting the size a church can attain, which is will hasten the multi-site option even more.
-The number of independent or non-mainline clergy and churches will outnumber established clergy and churches by 2024.
-Denominational officials in established churches undergo a spiritual revival where Jesus is once again the driving force of their ministry and as a result established denominations begin to thrive once again.
-Terrorists develop a dirty bomb and all of the above goes out the window!
If you are a pastor in your 20s to 40s in an established denomination, you have some serious choices to make. The odds are before you die your denomination will cease to exist as you know it today.
If you are a pastor in your 50s in an established denomination, you are in for a very voile ride. You will either be a pastor of a growing church with mega church possibilities or you will have difficulty finding a healthy church.
Now keep in mind I’ve been wrong before. But over the years, beginning with my predictions in my book Dancing With Dinosaurs, my observations have been on target more than 95% of the time.